Why mmWave Failed to Scale in AustraliaWednesday, 2026-Mar-4
Five years ago, industry leaders like Qualcomm touted millimeter wave (mmWave) as a game-changer, while Analysys Mason—a consultancy for Ericsson and Qualcomm—predicted significant economic benefits. Unfortunately, mmWave has yet to deliver the breakthrough Australians were promised, after growth stalled more than two years ago.
Millimeter wave (mmWave) spans 24-100 GHz and promises ultra-fast wireless speeds. Deployment in Australia began in 2021 with Vodafone at 25.1-25.7 GHz, Telstra at 25.7-26.7 GHz, Optus at 26.7-27.5 GHz, and NBN at 28.5-29.5 GHz.
mmWave Deployment Falls Far Behind Mid-Band 5G
The promise was bold: thousands of mmWave sites lighting up cities from Perth to Sydney. The reality? Just 1,155 nationwide.
Comparing Growth: 3.4 GHz vs. mmWave
Telstra, Optus, and Vodafone's 3.4 GHz deployments vastly outpace mmWave:
- 3.4 GHz mid-band sites grew from zero to 15,029 nationwide (2018-26).
- mmWave sites reached just 1,155 (2021-25).
- In deployment year 5 (2025-26), mmWave site growth slowed to 1% annually, compared to 24% for 3.4 GHz in its fifth year (2022–23).
| Period | 3.4 GHz | mmWave |
|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | 453% | n/a |
| 2019-20 | 350% | n/a |
| 2020-21 | 127% | n/a |
| 2021-22 | 40% | 755% |
| 2022-23 | 24% | 167% |
| 2023-24 | 17% | 34% |
| 2024-25 | 13% | 4% |
| 2025-26 | 9% | 1% |
The 755% mmWave growth in 2021–22 was a low-base surge, not sustained momentum. Since 2023, growth has declined, hitting just 1% this year.
Why mmWave Deployment Stalled?
- Physics: mmWave's poor penetration and short range require extremely dense site spacing, line-of-sight conditions, and extensive fiber or high-capacity backhaul—driving up deployment complexity, power requirements, and per-site costs compared with mid-band alternatives.
- Economics: Operators favor 3.4-3.8 GHz, balancing reach, capacity, and ROI.
- Competition: Rapid mid-band and 5G SA expansion already deliver major speed gains without mmWave densification.
Potential Niche Applications for mmWave
While widespread adoption has stalled, mmWave remains valuable in tightly controlled or high-demand scenarios, such as:
- Stadiums and arenas hosting major events (e.g., Olympic venues, AFL Grand Finals), where predictable line-of-sight and dense device use play to mmWave's strengths.
- Airports and transit hubs with open layouts and high foot traffic, such as Sydney and Melbourne airports.
- Fixed wireless in open areas with minimal obstacles—e.g., targeted deployments in business parks or suburban edges.
- High-density urban zones like Sydney's or Melbourne's CBD, where localized capacity spikes justify dense small-cell deployments.
- Industrial automation and real-time media workflows, including 4K video upload from media crews or automated machinery in logistics warehouses.
These use cases suggest mmWave's future lies in targeted deployments, not mass-market mobile coverage.
Conclusion: mmWave Falls Short of Hype
Operators continue to prioritize mid-band (3.4 GHz) 5G, limiting mmWave to niche deployments. In March 2026, just 1,155 mmWave sites exist—dwarfed by 15,029 mid-band (3.4 GHz) sites, a 13-to-1 difference. For now, mmWave’s once-vaunted promise remains largely unrealized outside tightly controlled environments.
mmWave's long-promised revolution has instead become a specialized tool—powerful in pockets but impractical at scale. In Australia, mid-band remains the true workhorse of 5G.